Kurds backed by Mossad, CIA could lead next phase of war in Iran
· Axios
Militants from several Kurdish Iranian factions are preparing for a possible ground offensive against Iran's regime in the northwestern part of the country, according to U.S. and Israeli officials and a senior official in one of the Iranian-Kurdish factions.
Why it matters: A Kurdish ground offensive coordinated with the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign against Tehran would be a potential way to increase pressure on the regime and encourage an internal rebellion that could spread to other parts of Iran.
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Driving the news: Six days before the war began, five dissident Kurdish Iranian groups sheltering in Iraq announced the formation of the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan to fight Iran.
- These Kurdish factions have thousands of soldiers along the Iran-Iraq border and control strategic areas.
- In recent weeks, the Kurdish-Iranian factions sent hundreds of their members from the camp on the Iraqi side of the border to the Iranian side as part of a preparation for possible attack against regime forces, a source close to one of the factions said.
Behind the scenes: The Iranian Kurdish militias are backed by the Mossad and the CIA spy agencies, two U.S. and Israeli officials and a third source with knowledge said.
- The goal is to try to takeover a specific territory in the Kurdish region inside Iran in order to challenge the regime and inspire a broader uprising, a U.S. official said.
- "The war started with a kinetic phase by the U.S. and Israeli militaries, but as the war continues there will be other efforts by the Mossad and the CIA", an Israeli official said.
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Congress in a closed doors briefing on Tuesday: "We're not arming the Kurds. But you never know with the Israelis."
- The role of the CIA in the plan was first reported by CNN.
Zoom in: The idea to support the Kurdish Iranian factions and use them for a ground offensive from Iraq into Iran came initially from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Mossad, with the CIA joining the effort at a later stage, a second U.S. official said.
- Israeli officials promised the Kurdish Iranian factions not only military support but also political support for a Kurdish autonomous region in a future Iran if the regime collapsed, the official claimed.
- "The problem is that the Kurdish Iranian factions don't have enough military power and the could end up as cannon fodder," the official said.
- White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Wednesday that President Trump hasn't agreed to any plan for supporting an offensive by Kurdish Iranian militias against the regime.
- The CIA and Mossad declined to comment.
The big picture: Trump spoke by phone on Sunday with Kurdish leaders in Iraq Masoud Barzani and Bafel Talabani to discuss the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and what might come next, Axios reported.
- A U.S. official said the call was good but both Barzani and Talbani expressed reservations about getting involved in any ground invasion into Iran.
- CNN reported that Trump spoke separately to the leader of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Mustafa Hijri.
- Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi spoke on Wednesday with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and expressed concern about a possible ground incursion by the Kurdish-Iranian factions into Iran.
- "The Iraqi prime minister emphasized that the Iraqi government will under no circumstances allow any threat to be directed at Iran from Iraqi territory," the Iranian foreign ministry said in a statement.
State of play: In the days since the war with Iran started, Israeli fighter jets conducted airstrikes against Iranian military border positions in the Kurdistan region and against Iranian revolutionary guards' bases and police stations in the area.
- Iranian news agency Tasnim reported on Wednesday that the city of Bukan in northwestern Iran, near the border with Iraq, was under heavily bombing.
- On Wednesday, the Kurdish Iranian factions denied that they started a ground offensive. A Kurdish source said such an offensive could start later this week, but said the different factions are waiting for a U.S. "green light" to go in.
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