March Madness most likely upsets: Is Duke, Michigan, Arizona or Florida the riskiest 1 seed in 2026?
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March Madness most likely upsets: Is Duke, Michigan, Arizona or Florida the riskiest 1 seed in 2026? originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
The No. 1 seeds in March Madness are No. 1 seeds for a reason.
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In almost every season, they can be considered the four best college basketball teams from the regular season and conference tournaments — the kind of units that aren't just expected to win one or two NCAA Tournament games, but make a run for the title. Of the 40 national champions since 1985, 26 have been a No. 1 seed, per the NCAA.
Still, there have only been two years where all four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four: 1985 and last year, 2025, when Auburn, Duke, Florida and Houston all went on deep runs.
In 2026, four of the sport's most recognizable brands will have favorable paths to the Final Four as top seeds: Duke, Michigan, Arizona and Florida. But chances are, at least one of those teams won't survive the path. The question is: who will it be?
Here's a breakdown of the four No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament, ranking how likely they are to be upset before the Final Four.
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March Madness most likely upsets among No. 1 seeds
No. 1: Florida
- Round of 64: No. 16 Lehigh / Prairie View A&M
- Round of 32: No. 8 Clemson or No. 9 Iowa
- Sweet 16: No. 4 Nebraska, No. 5 Vanderbilt, more
- Elite Eight: No. 2 Houston, No. 3 Illinois, more
It is extremely difficult to go back-to-back with NCAA Tournament titles. UConn did it in 2023 and 2024, but that's just one of eight cases of a team successfully defending its throne going back to 1939.
In other words, the Florida Gators have a tall task in front of them if they're going to re-experience the glory of winning March Madness. Todd Golden's squad wouldn't feel like the weakest No. 1 seed of the bunch if it had been a bit more dominant in the regular season, as it was in 2024-25. But with seven losses in 2025-26, the Gators are far more vulnerable than the other top seeds.
Most recently, Florida could be seen dropping a 91-74 game to Vanderbilt in the SEC Tournament, likely its worst loss of the season after riding a previous 12-game winning streak. In the regular season, the Gators also lost to TCU, UConn, Missouri and Auburn, on top of losses to fellow No. 1 seeds in Arizona and Duke.
While the Gators were rewarded with the last No. 1 seed for their late-regular-season run and should be applauded for still winning 26 games after a ton of championship talent departed, it's clear this isn't quite the juggernaut team it was in 2025.
In the Sweet 16, another matchup against the Commodores is a possibility. And should Florida reach the Elite Eight, there's another fascinating possibility — a 2025 championship rematch against Houston, which had its own case to be a No. 1 seed this year. The Cougars would surely love to get some title revenge, and while no No. 2 seed is an easy opponent, a motivated Houston team would make for a tough break in Florida's path to the Final Four.
The Gators should be expected to advance through a round or two. But once the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight arrive, if any No. 1 seed is going to fall, it could be the defending champs.
HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5
No. 2: Michigan
- Round of 64: No. 16 Howard / UMBC
- Round of 32: No. 8 Georgia or No. 9 Saint Louis
- Sweet 16: No. 4 Alabama, No. 5 Texas Tech, more
- Elite Eight: No. 2 Iowa State, No. 3 Virginia, more
March is the time to get hot ahead of the NCAA Tournament. And unlike the other two No. 1 seeds not yet ranked, Michigan is coming off a loss heading into the bracket — which can sometimes halt some momentum right when a team needs it most.
The Wolverines allowed Purdue to pull away in the second half of the Big Ten Championship, providing somewhat of a formula for teams to emulate at when it comes to beating Dusty May's lengthy unit — taking care of the basketball, pounding the rock inside, and moving the ball around helped the Boilermakers hand Michigan its third loss of the year.
It shouldn't be too much of a concern yet, but it also doesn't help that Michigan's leading scorer, Yaxel Lendeborg, said he had a low-ankle sprain after that loss, per Alejandro Zuniga. That will be a situation to monitor with the Wolverines.
Depth and size have been the name of Michigan's game, and there have been times this season when that combination has made May's unit appear to be college basketball's best. Momentum should be factored in, though, and if a team like Georgia, Alabama or Iowa State can have a hot shooting night against the Wolverines, it's not too difficult to imagine them going down earlier than anticipated.
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No. 3: Arizona
- Round of 64: No. 16 LIU
- Round of 32: No. 8 Villanova or No. 9 Utah State
- Sweet 16: No. 4 Arkansas, No. 5 Wisconsin, more
- Elite Eight: No. 2 Purdue, No. 3 Gonzaga, more
A couple of two-loss teams that won their conference tournaments headline the No. 1 seeds this year, making this a bit of a toss-up. It's hard to see either Arizona or Duke failing to reach the Final Four based on the seasons they've put together. But if one of them is going to fall first, the pick here is the Wildcats.
Arizona's two losses this season were both close, falling 82-78 to Kansas, then 78-75 in overtime to Texas Tech in the following game. But since then, there's been no trouble, with the Wildcats winning nine-straight games to win the Big 12 Tournament and come into March Madness at 32-2.
Arizona has beaten elite teams to get to this spot, owning wins over Iowa State (2), Houston (2), Kansas, BYU (2), Alabama, UConn and UCLA. In Brayden Burries and Koa Peat, the squad has a pair of dynamic players to rely on. The Wildcats have yet to appear too shaky this season outside of those narrow consecutive losses in conference play.
Compared to Duke, though, Tommy Lloyd's squad will have more to prove this March. Arizona has lost in the Sweet 16 in three of its four NCAA Tournament bids under Lloyd. If there's a year to break through, it's this one — the Wildcats may have to go through Purdue or Gonzaga, but their path to the Final Four is a favorable one.
No. 4: Duke
It's difficult to pick against the Blue Devils; they check every box you want in a Final Four team, even with a tough draw in the bracket.
Jon Scheyer has proven that his teams will be elite year-in-and-out, maintaining a national title contender in 2025-26 after a lot of talent left for the NBA. When Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel departed, in stepped Cameron Boozer, while players like Isaiah Evans and Patrick Ngongba have excelled in bigger roles. In Boozer, Duke undoubtedly has the best player among the No. 1 seeds, if not in the entire tournament.
Two things could be concerning for the Blue Devils: an East region that includes No. 5 St. John's, No. 4 Kansas, No. 2 UConn and No. 3 Michigan State, with plenty of elite coaches set to go head-to-head, along with the long-term injury to guard Caleb Foster. The path to the title isn't particularly light for Duke, and Foster's absence will be notable.
However, these Blue Devils were also the only team in the country to finish top-4 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom, they've lost just two games all season — a one-point lost to Texas Tech, plus a three-point loss to UNC, a rivalry where virtually anything can happen — and, as previously mentioned, they have Boozer's all-around talents at their disposal.
Scheyer has proven it's his recruiting and coaching that allows him to build elite teams, not just the top-end talent doing its thing. Foster's absence hurts, but Duke is capable of winning without him. Even in a loaded East Region, the Blue Devils are the No. 1 seed you can feel most confident about reaching the Final Four.
SN EXPERT BRACKETS:DeCourcy (Arizona) | Bender (Michigan) | Iyer (Arizona) | Gay (UCLA women)