There’s BAD news for an interest rate cut in South Africa next week
· The South African
South Africa’s latest inflation data may be encouraging, but it is unlikely to translate into interest rate relief just yet.
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And that news won’t come as much comfort to those South Africa’s currently drowning in debt.
Latest figures from Stats SA released on Wednesday show consumer inflation easing to 3% in February, down from 3.5% in January – landing squarely on the central bank’s revised target.
However, economists warn that a rate cut at next Thursday’s SARB Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting is increasingly unlikely.
Global tensions cloud outlook
The main concern is the ongoing – and escalating – conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran, which has sent shockwaves through global energy markets.
Oil prices have surged more than 40% since late February, with Brent crude climbing above $100 per barrel.
At the same time, the rand has weakened against the dollar – a combination that typically fuels inflation in South Africa.
SARB Governor Lesetja Kganyago has previously stated that local inflation is particularly sensitive to currency weakness, even more so than oil price movements.
Fuel price shock looming
While South Africa’s motorists in March saw fuel prices hiked, the outlook for April is significantly worse.
Early projections point to increases of:
- R4.74 per litre for petrol
- R7.83 per litre for diesel
Rates likely on hold
Despite inflation hitting target, markets are pricing in no change to the repo rate, which currently stands at 6.75%.
The MPC is set to meet on Thursday, 26 March, where they are expected to take a cautious stance as they assess:
- The impact of rising oil prices
- Currency volatility
- The broader geopolitical environment
What it means for consumers
For now, borrowers hoping for lower interest rates may need to wait a little longer.
Economists expect inflation to average around 3.2% in the first quarter, before climbing closer to 4% in the second quarter as fuel price pressures build.
In short, while inflation has cooled for now, global risks mean the SARB is likely to hold the line on rates – at least for the time being.
Second interest rate announcement of 2026
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) last cut the repo rate by 25 basis points at its November 2025 meeting.
At January 2026’s meeting, rates were kept on hold.
Next Thursday’s announcement will mark the committee’s second interest rate decision of the year.
Who are the SARB’s MPC?
The South African Reserve Bank’s monetary policy committee meets every second month to announce changes – if any – to the country’s repo and prime lending rates.
The meetings are scheduled to take place in January, March, May, July, September and November – and always on a Thursday at 15:00.
Currently, the committee comprises of six people, with Lesetja Kganyago holding the position of governor of the SARB – and the deciding vote if necessary.
Dates for SARB MPC meeting dates in 2026
MonthDateOutcomeJanuary29 JanuaryNo changeMarch26 MarchTBAMay28 MayTBAJuly23 JulyTBASeptember23 SeptemberTBANovember19 NovemberTBAMonthly bond repayment table
The table below shows the current monthly bond repayments on various bond values over a 20-year period assuming no deposit and repayments at prime.
BondRepaymentR750 000R7 362R800 000R7 853R850 000R8 344R900 000R8 835R950 000R9 326R1 000 000R9 816R1 500 000R14 725R2 000 000R19 633R2 500 000R24 541R3 000 000R29 449R3 500 000R34 358R4 000 000R39 266R4 500 000R44 174R5 000 000R49 082Do you have a bond, is your house paid off or do you rent?
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