Trump considers "winding down" Iran war without opening Hormuz Strait
· Axios
President Trump said on Friday he is considering "winding down" the war with Iran without solving the crisis over the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
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Why it matters: Trump has said for several days that the war could end soon, but this is the strongest signal yet that he's actively moving in that direction. If he does walk away without reopening the strait, the U.S. would be leaving other countries to clean up a hugely consequential economic quagmire.
What he's saying: "We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East with respect to the Terrorist Regime of Iran," Trump wrote on Truth Social.
- He listed degrading Iran's missile capability and industrial base, eliminating the Iranian navy and air force, preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, and protecting U.S. allies in the Middle East, most of which were attacked during the war.
- "The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not," Trump wrote. "If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn't be necessary once Iran's threat is eradicated."
Between the lines: The Hormuz crisis has Trump trapped: he can't end the war on his terms unless he breaks Iran's chokehold on Gulf oil, but reopening the strait by force would risk escalation and potentially put U.S. troops in the line of fire.
- Trump originally wanted to end the war before the end of March, sources say, but the crisis in the strait has compelled him to continue the war longer than he'd planned.
- Securing the strait does not appear nearly as easy as Trump suggested it would be in his post.
- The White House has been discussing options, such as seizing Kharg Island off the Iranian coast, to force Iran to open the strait.
Inside the room: Allies and advisers who have spoken with Trump describe a president divided over the war.
- On one hand, he's worried about the price of oil and annoyed he can't get allies to help solve the Hormuz closure.
- On the other hand, he's thrilled with the raw exercise of military might obliterating Iranian leaders and military capabilities.
- "We're hot! We're winning!" he told a confidant opposed to the war who relayed the remarks to Axios. Polls the war is highly unpopular overall, but Trump prefers to focus on the high percentage of MAGA Republicans who back it, his advisers say.
Reality check: Trump has sent a number of contradictory signals leading up to and during the war, so Friday's post should not be taken as a clear sign that the war will soon end.
- His message could be intended to put pressure on allies to work with the U.S. to open the strait, to keep Iran off balance.
- In the meantime, the U.S. is sending thousands of marines to the region and conducting extensive strikes to reduce Iran's capacity to menace the strait.
- Some Trump advisers still think ground operations are likely.
The bottom line: It would be an extraordinary step to withdraw U.S. forces and support without solving a major economic crisis that resulted from the war and is driving gas prices up at home.