Padres should be concerned about Lucas Giolito
· Yahoo Sports
The start of the 2026 season began with a Spring Training that resulted in San Diego Padres starter Joe Musgrove landing on the injured list with a surgically repaired elbow that wasn’t ready to pitch. Then, after four starts, Nick Pivetta was placed on the injured list with a flexor tendon strain of his right arm. Germán Márquez made six starts and was placed on the injured list with right forearm nerve discomfort. He had been inconsistent, at best, before that move.
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Righty Matt Waldron, who had been spectacularly effective in Triple-A, was called up and was unable to put together any consistent success, often being hit hard. He was also placed on the IL. Reclamation project, Walker Buehler, started the season seemingly knowing that his command and control would be of utmost importance because of the diminished velocity after his two elbow surgeries.
Fortunately, Michael King and Randy Vásquez have remained healthy. They have both made all their scheduled starts but neither has been consistent and have had some outings that cause concern. Griffin Canning completed his rehab assignment and joined the rotation but has also had problems with consistency so far.
Considering the situation with the starters, it isn’t a surprise that the president of baseball operations, A.J. Preller signed free agent starter Lucas Giolito to a one-year, $2.8 million guaranteed contract on April 22. Giolito was still available after not signing during the offseason or during spring camp. He ended the 2025 season on the injured list with the Boston Red Sox and hadn’t pitched for them during the playoffs. He missed all of 2024 after undergoing UCL repair but bounced back with the Red Sox. His 10-4 record and 3.41 ERA as the No. 3 starter for Boston motivated him to bypass his $19 million option for 2026 and go on the free agent market.
The reason for his not having a contract before Spring Training isn’t known but it has been discussed that his asking price was too high, given that he ended the 2025 season on the IL with a sore elbow. Whatever the reason, Giolito was available in late April, and at a discount price.
What did the Padres get in Giolito?In 2025, Giolito featured a 93 mph fastball that he threw 48% of the time. He threw his 86 mph slider 26% of the time, his 81.7 mph changeup 23% of the time and his 76.6 mph curveball 3% of his pitches. During his ramp-up in the minor leagues after signing in April (two games each with Single-A Lake Elsinore and Double-A San Antonio), Giolito totaled 17 innings pitched with a 4.76 ERA.
During the course of a normal spring camp, starters work up from pitching one or two innings to begin and progress up to 60-80 pitches and at least five innings before the end of their progression. With six weeks allowed, most starters are ready to pitch before spring camp is done and back off their pitch count in their last start.
The contract agreed to by the Padres and Giolito guaranteed that he be with the major league team by May 16. That only allowed time for the four starts in the minors. It became apparent in his first start with the Padres, on May 17 versus Seattle, that Giolito was not back to where he left off in 2025.
His fastball velocity is down 3 mph, as is his slider and changeup velocity. He has changed his pitch usage from a fastball-and-slider-dominant mix to a fastball-and-changeup-dominant mix. His curveball remains a show-me pitch at 3%.
Not surprisingly, his walk rate is up and his strikeout rate is down. The batting average against his fastball sits at .313 with a .555 slug. The groundball rate is sitting at 26.3% where he normally sits 35% and above.
Can Lucas Giolito recover his form?The most optimistic answer is that the lack of a normal Spring Training, and only having four starts to prepare for his season, is responsible for his poor start to 2026. In his three games with the Padres, he has been unable to get past the fifth inning. His last start was 2.2 innings, allowing five hits and four walks for four runs. His command has not improved and seems to have slipped. There have been 11 walks in 12.2 innings with six strikeouts.
With less than a month to prepare and a contract that required his promotion, Giolito didn’t do himself or the Padres any favors. It could be argued that he might have been called up anyway, given the situation with the starting rotation.
The Padres have a significant lack of depth in the organization when it comes to starting pitchers. But with Canning and Giolito both working back from a not-normal spring preparation, the Padres are relying on King, Vásquez, and Buehler to carry the load. That’s a lot to ask considering King is working back after missing the majority of last season and Buehler is trying to reinvent himself as a starter.
The trade rumor mill is churning out leaks about Preller inquiring regarding more bullpen depth. It seems more likely that another starter or two would be a wiser choice if this team wants to try to stay in the running for a playoff spot this season.
Assuming the offense starts improving over the next month, it seems unlikely this group of starters will get the Padres to where they want to go. Hoping Pivetta and Musgrove are back this summer doesn’t seem like a good enough plan.