Turkey vs Paraguay Prediction: World Cup 2026 Preview & Best Bets
· Yahoo Sports
Turkey vs Paraguay | Group D, Matchday 9 | Friday, 19 June 2026 | 20:00 local (03:00 BST, 20 June)
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Venue: Levi’s Stadium, San Francisco Bay Area (Santa Clara), USA
Group D Standings: United States 3pts | Australia 3pts | Turkey 0pts | Paraguay 0pts
TV/Streaming (UK): ITV / ITVX
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What’s at Stake
Both Turkey and Paraguay arrive at Levi’s Stadium with nothing on the board after opening defeats, meaning this is effectively a must-win fixture for both sides. Turkey were beaten 2-0 by Australia, while Paraguay conceded four to the United States in a 4-1 loss. With the United States and Australia already on three points apiece, the loser here faces near-certain elimination, and even a draw could prove too little unless the results elsewhere turn extremely kind.
Verdict
Turkey vs Paraguay is a survival match that could go either way, but Turkey’s attacking quality through Hakan Calhanoğlu, Arda Guler and Kerem Akturkoglu gives them a narrow edge, and leading operators price the home side as favourites at 1/1. A Turkey win with goals at both ends looks the most value-laden combination in the market given both defences showed clear vulnerabilities on Matchday 1.
Turkey vs Paraguay Match Preview
Turkey return to the World Cup for the first time since 2002, when Vincenzo Montella’s side famously claimed third place. That 24-year absence adds enormous emotional weight to every Group D fixture, and losing the opener to Australia has made qualification mathematics stark from the start. Montella has built his squad around a blend of seasoned leaders and exciting younger talent, but the 2-0 defeat by Australia exposed defensive frailties that Paraguay will have noted carefully.
Paraguay, under manager Gustavo Alfaro, are back at a World Cup for the first time since their 2010 quarter-final run in South Africa, ending a 16-year absence. Alfaro, who previously guided Ecuador to the 2022 finals, has assembled a side that qualified from CONMEBOL with home wins over several top South American nations. The 4-1 thumping at the hands of the United States was a reality check, however, and Paraguay’s attacking output will need to be sharper if they are to trouble a Turkey midfield anchored by Calhanoğlu.
The game is likely to be decided in the middle of the park. Turkey’s technical quality gives them the tools to control possession, and Arda Guler’s creativity from advanced midfield positions could be the difference-maker in a contest where neither goalkeeper will be guaranteed a quiet night. Paraguay will need to be more compact than they were against the United States, while Turkey must convert the opportunities their forward line should generate.
Team Form
Turkey – Last 5 Results
Australia (A): Lost 0-2 (World Cup) Venezuela (N): Won 2-1 (Friendly) North Macedonia (H): Won 4-0 (Friendly) Kosovo (A): Won 1-0 (World Cup Qualification) Romania (H): Won 1-0 (World Cup Qualification)
Turkey’s recent record showed genuine momentum heading into this tournament, with qualification secured via a 6W 1D 1L record that included a 6-1 dismantling of Bulgaria and a creditable 2-2 draw away to Spain. The opening loss to Australia, in which they were kept scoreless, is the outlier, but it is a warning that their defensive structure must tighten considerably if they are to progress.
Paraguay – Last 5 Results
United States (A): Lost 1-4 (World Cup) Nicaragua (H): Won 4-0 (Friendly) Morocco (N): Lost 1-2 (Friendly) Greece (A): Won 1-0 (Friendly) Mexico (N): Won 2-1 (Friendly)
Paraguay’s qualifying record of 3W 2D 1L across six CONMEBOL fixtures, including wins over Uruguay and Peru, suggests a side capable of competing against South American heavyweights. The 4-0 pre-tournament win over Nicaragua, while against modest opposition, showed attacking intent, but the United States game exposed the same defensive gaps that Alfaro must address here.
Team News
Turkey head coach Vincenzo Montella has a strong squad available for selection, with no major injury concerns reported ahead of this game. Calhanoğlu leads the side from central midfield as captain and remains the creative and defensive fulcrum of the team. The question after the Australia defeat is whether Montella will make changes to his defensive line, where the side looked vulnerable to direct attacking play.
Arda Guler, the 21-year-old Real Madrid playmaker, and Kenan Yildiz of Juventus give Turkey genuine creativity in the final third, while Akturkoglu is the team’s most dangerous attacking threat. Guler in particular has earned a reputation as one of Europe’s most exciting young players and will be central to Turkey’s attempts to open Paraguay up.
Paraguay manager Gustavo Alfaro must decide whether to make changes following the heavy defeat to the United States. Julio Enciso has been one of the side’s key creative threats and will again be expected to provide the spark in attacking areas. Miguel Almiron, the experienced midfielder with 76 caps, brings leadership and energy in the middle of the park. Goalkeeper Gatito Fernandez, who has 31 caps for the national side, will need a much-improved performance after being beaten four times on Matchday 1.
Predicted Lineups
Predicted XI (4-3-3): Bayindir; Celik, Demiral, Soguncu, Kadioglu; Calhanoğlu (c), Ayhan, Kokcu; Guler, Akturkoglu, Yildiz
Predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Gatito Fernandez; Caceres, Gustavo Gomez (c), Junior Alonso, Alderete; Cubas, Ojeda; Enciso, Almiron, Kaku; Sanabria
Predicted XI – squads to be confirmed.
Key Tactical Matchup
The central duel between Hakan Calhanoğlu and Paraguay’s midfield pairing of Andres Cubas and Braian Ojeda is likely to shape the outcome. Calhanoğlu, capped 105 times with 22 international goals including three penalties, dictates Turkey’s tempo from deep, recycling possession and threading forward passes into the channels for Guler and Akturkoglu. Paraguay’s double pivot must limit his space and time on the ball, because when Calhanoğlu has freedom to advance, Turkey’s forward line becomes significantly harder to contain. If Alfaro’s midfield can press high and disrupt Turkey’s build-up rhythm, Paraguay have a genuine chance of keeping the game tight.
Best Bets
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Turkey to Win @ 1/1 Turkey’s superior technical quality across all positions and their greater experience of playing against UEFA and CONMEBOL opposition in recent qualifiers makes them the logical pick in this winner-take-most fixture. Akturkoglu (15 international goals) is the most lethal forward on the pitch, and the Turkish attacking trio has the pace and skill to punish Paraguay’s exposed backline.
Over 2.5 Goals @ 6/5 Both defences were badly exposed in their Matchday 1 games – Turkey conceded two to Australia without reply, while Paraguay shipped four against the United States. With neither side able to afford a cautious approach, the conditions are in place for an open, high-tempo game. The best available price of 6/5 on over 2.5 goals looks fair value in that context.
Julio Enciso to Score Anytime Enciso is Paraguay’s most dynamic attacking outlet and arrives at this tournament with four goals from his recent international appearances, including a penalty. He has the directness and technique to threaten at set pieces and in open play, and Turkey’s defensive uncertainty makes him a credible scorer at what should be an attractive price.
Both Teams to Score @ 6/5 Turkey’s goalscoring threat is clear, but Paraguay will not come without ambition given their elimination scenario. With Calhanoğlu and Guler capable of unlocking the defence at one end and Enciso and Sanabria a threat at the other, both teams finding the net looks the more likely outcome than a clean sheet for either side.
Turkey vs Paraguay Odds
Odds sourced from leading operators and correct at time of publication.
Turkey Win – 1/1Draw – 5/2Paraguay Win – 10/3Over 2.5 Goals – 6/5Under 2.5 Goals – 5/6
How to Watch and How to Bet
How to Watch
Turkey vs Paraguay will be broadcast live in the United Kingdom on ITV and streamed free via ITVX. Kick-off is at 03:00 BST on Saturday, 20 June 2026. No subscription is required for ITV or ITVX coverage in the UK.
How to Bet
If you are looking to place a bet on Turkey vs Paraguay, here is a straightforward guide to getting on safely and efficiently.
- Choose a licensed and regulated betting operator available in your region.
- Create or log in to your account, ensuring your details are verified.
- Navigate to the World Cup section and find the Turkey vs Paraguay fixture.
- Compare the best available price across operators for your chosen selection.
- Check for any enhanced odds or promotions applicable to this match.
- Select your stake and review your betslip carefully before confirming.
- Consider building an accumulator by combining Turkey vs Paraguay picks with other World Cup Group D fixtures for a higher combined return.
- Set a deposit limit or use responsible gambling tools before placing any wager.
Responsible Gambling
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