Fantasy Football Sleepers, Busts & Predictions: 2026 Detroit Lions
· Yahoo Sports
When the Lions fell to the 49ers 34-31 in the NFC Championship at the end of the 2023 season in heartbreaking fashion, head coach Dan Campbell addressed the team and told them that might have been their only shot. He didn’t say it was their only shot, or that he believed it was their only shot, but that it does happen that teams think they have a window when it turns out all they had was a clogged vent. Two years later, it’s looking a little like he might have been right on. The 2024 Lions went 15-2 and claimed the 1 seed in the NFC, but they got blown out by the Commanders in their lone playoff game. Last year, they fell further, going 9-8 and actually finishing last in the NFC North. Now, Jared Goff turns 32 in October. The offensive line has taken a step back. The secondary was the team’s weak spot before everything happened with Terrion Arnold. As of right now, the Lions are still the favorites in the NFC North, but the Packers and Bears are right there, and the Vikings could pop if Kyler Murray still has it. So the window isn’t closed. But if things don’t work for the Lions in 2026, the questions are really going to start up in earnest.
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2026 Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions: Detroit Lions
Sleeper: Jared Goff, QB
Four quarterbacks have finished as fantasy QB1s each of the last four years. Three of them should be pretty easy to guess — Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes. The fourth is Jared Goff, who has been the QB10, QB7, QB6 and QB8 across the last four seasons. Goff is fifth in total fantasy scoring in that time, behind the other three and Lamar Jackson.
Despite all that, Goff is QB16 in early ADP this year. The reason for that is pretty simple — he doesn’t carry the ceiling of the other quarterbacks. One of Goff’s biggest virtues during is stretch of success has been healthy, because he hasn’t missed a game since 2021. In fantasy points per game, his rankings have been QB14, QB14, QB7 and QB13. But look at those numbers again. Even if you look at the numbers in the unfriendliest way for Goff, he has still outpaced his current ADP for four years in a row.
Despite all that, Goff is QB16 in early ADP this year. The reason for that is pretty simple — he doesn’t carry the ceiling of the other quarterbacks. One of Goff’s biggest virtues during is stretch of success has been healthy, because he hasn’t missed a game since 2021. In fantasy points per game, his rankings have been QB14, QB14, QB7 and QB13. But look at those numbers again. Even if you look at the numbers in the unfriendliest way for Goff, he has still outpaced his current ADP for four years in a row. At quarterback — a position where people traditionally draft only one player, hope for health, and then just find someone to fill in on the bye — availability is a phenomenal ability, and Goff provides that. John Morton proved not to be what the team wanted in replacing Ben Johnson last year, with Drew Petzing replacing him as offensive coordinator for 2026. So there’s every reason to expect the offense to bounce back in 2026, and Goff still has elite weaponry. He’s a strong candidate for another top-10 finish this year.
Bust: Jameson Williams, WR
About 15 PPR points per game last year was borderline top-10 WR numbers. Take it down to the 10.9-11.0 range, and we’re talking borderline top-40. It was basically the difference between Nico Collins and Keenan Allen. Per the FTN Fantasy NFL Splits Tool, Jameson Williams last year averaged 10.9 PPR points per game in the nine games Sam LaPorta was active, compared to 15.1 when LaPorta was out:
Williams is a DeSean Jackson-esque big-play player, not likely to command a huge target total on a weekly basis. But the difference between 4.8 targets per game (what he had with LaPorta active) and 7.4 is enormous. If LaPorta is healthy in 2026, Williams has a seriously capped ceiling, and he’ll come in well below his current ADP of WR24.
Bold Prediction: Sam LaPorta Posts a Career High in Yardage
My first draft of this prediction was that he has his best fantasy season, but betting on any individual player to surpass 10 touchdowns is a long shot. So instead we’ll go this way. LaPorta is entering his fourth season. He’s put up 889, 726 and 489 yards in those three seasons. So his rookie-year total is our target here. The thing is this: LaPorta’s rookie year being his best year is almost entirely a product of two things: Playing time and touchdowns. That rookie year was his only year playing all 17 games. And with the very known caveat that when you lower the denominator, it becomes that much easier for an average to look better, let’s look at his numbers on a rate basis:
Yards Per GameYards Per TargetYards Per Route Run202352.37.41.6202445.48.71.5202554.310.01.8(YPRR numbers per FTN Stats & Charting.) In short, LaPorta was better in the aggregate as a rookie, but he was far more efficient last year, and if he can stay healthy in 2026, he’s set up for success. After all, his new OC, Drew Petzing, just got an absolutely monster season out of Trey McBride in Arizona.