Could any Giant factor into the awards races?
· Yahoo Sports
No, of course not. Stupid of me to ask, really. I’m sorry. I’m trying to delete it. Oh no, wait. This post is an assessment of the latest SB Nation Reacts poll, so buckle in, voters, you’re about to see some results.
With no Giants-specific poll this week, respondents were asked about four different awards races.
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An absolutely incredible bounce-back season for Alvarez, who was limited to just 48 games and 199 plate appearances last season. He still managed .273/.367/.430 with 6 homers in that brief period, but this season, he’s slashing .318/.426/.633 with 31 homers and 70 RBI in 96 games & 420 plate appearances. He’s on pace to shatter his previous career-high in home runs (37 set back in 2022) and the 29-year old is certainly hitting good enough to sell the idea of a designated hitter who’s not named Shohei Ohtani winning MVP.
Still, at just 22, Junior Caminero’s .279/.372/.555 with 28 homers and 59 RBI in 411 PA seems like a pretty serious threat to Alvarez. His defense at third base is less than stellar (-1 Outs Above Average, -8 Fielding Run Value — that’s the 5th-worst in the sport of any position) and should be counted against him for the purposes of a Most Valuable Player discussion. Still, the hitting is undeniable.
But the real answer here, with all due respect to Nick Kurtz — who I’m not going to discuss but is having a great follow-up season to his rookie campaign — who is but a first baseman, is Bobby Witt Jr., who has more rWAR than anyone on this list and who plays a premium position (shortstop). He’s the third-best defender in the sport in terms of fielding run value (+13), behind Pete Crow-Armstrong (+17), and JJ Wetherholt (+15) — an important aside: as I mentioned the other day, Luis Arraez is just 8 spots behind him at +8.
With all due respect to the indispensable, beautiful, and perfect Baseball Reference, I think FanGraphs’ wins above replacement is a more notable measure if only because more front offices have hired FanGraphs writers than Baseball Reference contributors. Given that, Bobby Witt Jr.‘s 4.8 fWAR is second-best in the sport behind Pete Crow-Armstrong’s 6.0 fWAR. Yordan Alvarez checks in at #4 overall (2nd in AL) with 4.4 fWAR… so, you know, I think this is the real race (Caminero is 15th overall at 3.2 fWAR — 7th in the AL).
Now, Ohtani is rightfully #1 because his combined hitting and pitching fWAR is 6.3, just ahead of Crow-Armstrong. Meanwhile, Soto leads Schwarber in fWAR, 2.9 to 2.5. The reason for the gap, I suspect, is simply that Schwarber has more homers (32) than Soto (21). But, Soto has played more games in the field than Schwarber (49 to 4) and has been better than Schwarber there. Schwarber has a -10.9 Defensive Runs Above Average despite logging just 27 innings in the field! Soto is also hitting 15 points better by wRC+ (163 to 149).
So, the respondents have it wrong in both races, and perhaps even more so here in the National League down ballot race. Not only have they miscalculated Soto vs. Schwarber, they’ve ignored two more deserving players, if we’re just looking at fWAR. Buckle up, Giants fans.
Here is the top 5 in fWAR in the National League right now:
5. JJ Wetherholt, St. Louis — 3.5 fWAR
4. Luis Arraez, San Francisco — 3.7
3. Otto Lopez, Miami — 4.3
2. James Wood, Washington — 4.6
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong — 6.0
I think it should go without saying that defense ought to be a component of a “Most Valuable” vote, and if voters were to downplay that part of the equation, then the hitting would have to be spectacular.
James Wood is the best hitter in the National League with a 166 wRC+. Then it’s Soto, followed by Ohtani, Crow-Armstrong, and Schwarber… Otto Lopez is 10th (137 wRC+) and coming in 19th in the NL is Luis Arraez (127). That’s how valuable Luis Arraez has been: his defense has made him more valuable than his hitting.
So, if there is one Giant who could compete for a postseason award, it’s Luis Arraez. And he’s not just “the rest of the field.” He compares quite favorably to the top 10 in the running and maybe even the top 5. Not referenced in this poll, but a point that could be significant in a possible MVP candidacy: he will probably win the NL batting title if he’s not traded outside the league (or traded at all).
Also worth noting: Since May 1st, Rafael Devers has been an even more valuable hitter than Arraez. His 154 wRC+ is 9th in the NL. He’d have to have a truly transformative 60+ games to close out this season to even get into the conversation, but he’s worth point out insofar as he has certainly outhit this idiot’s assessment and looks like he will end the season comfortably within his career averages and exactly where we all expected him to be before the season began.
david attenborough: [mumbling] skip. i dont like this animal. skip it.
— paddle (@ipaddlearound) June 25, 2023
(Though, if you haven’t looked into it yet, check out Cam Schlittler’s brief career. A 7th round draft pick out of Northeastern University who has shot up to being the Yankees’ co-ace.)
This is also a solid, close to obvious list with just a couple of exceptions. The top 4 in fWAR is Misiorowski (4.4), Sanchez (4.0), Jesus Luzardo (3.3), and Paul Skenes (3.2). Yamamoto and Sale are actually tied in fWAR (2.7) and trail Cincinnati’s Chase Burns (2.9) and Pittsburgh’s Braxton Ashcraft (2.8).
The only Giants within spitting difference of the top10 are Landen Roupp (2.1) and Logan Webb (1.9).
With Misiorowski facing some forearm fatigue, it’s possible that this final stretch of games sees him fall from the top spot, but it seems unlikely that any Giant will crack the top 5 and reassert themselves in this race. That’d be a shame because Logan Webb received Cy Young votes the past four seasons. It’s tough to bet against Logan Webb, but this season has certainly been more down than up.
Not referenced by this polling are the separate Rookie of the Year races. It’s plausible that Bryce Eldridge cracks the top 5, but as of MLB.com’s latest polling (June 8th), he was facing an uphill battle to go higher than that given St. Louis’s JJ Wetherholt, Cincinnati’s Sal Stewart, Nolan McLean of the Mets and Pittsburgh’s Konnor Griffin.
But what do you think? Do Luis Arraez, Bryce Eldridge, and Logan Webb have a shot at being in the running for any of these awards down the stretch?