Who Are The Longshots To Watch At The Open?
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ST ANDREWS, SCOTLAND - JULY 17: Tom Watson of the United States putts on the 18th green during the second round of the 144th Open Championship at The Old Course on July 17, 2015 in St Andrews, Scotland. This is Watson's last Open Championship. (Photo by Richard Heathcote/R&A/R&A via Getty Images)
R&A via Getty ImagesThe year’s final major is as wide open as any I’ve seen in a while. No player is an overwhelming favorite. No one is coming in super hot. Many players are on form. Royal Birkdale, the site of this year’s Open Championship, is not the type of course that will separate contenders from pretenders. That will lead to some intriguing and potentially lucrative betting.
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This year has already seen a longshot win a major when Aaron Rai won the PGA Championship in May. Wyndham Clark wasn’t on everybody’s radar to win his second U.S. Open last month either. History says it may be time to restore order and produce an expected champion. I say let’s have another winner nobody is looking at. It makes for good television, exciting golf and a few bucks if you pick the correct horse. Odds greater than +7000 are being considered only.
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US golfer Jordan Spieth poses for pictures with the Claret Jug, the trophy for the Champion golfer of the year, in front of the Art-Deco-style clubhouse, after winning the 2017 British Open Golf Championship at Royal Birkdale golf course near Southport in north west England on July 23, 2017. Jordan Spieth won the British Open at Royal Birkdale on Sunday by three shots. It is Spieth's third major title after he won the Masters and US Open in 2015. (Photo by Andy BUCHANAN / AFP via Getty Images) / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE
AFP via Getty ImagesJordan Speith +7500 to win
In case you forgot, Speith has won at Birkdale before. He couldn’t hit a fairway, but made everything that week. He’s actually been playing well. I hate to say it but his major championship window may be closing even at his young age. If he plays well he will lock in and draw from his major experience. Remember this guy has won multiple majors. He likes the style of golf to be played this week. Just keep it on the property Jordan. Hope for the short game magic and make me some money.
PORTRUSH, NORTHERN IRELAND - JULY 18: Cameron Smith of Australia walks on the first hole during day two of The 153rd Open Championship at Royal Portrush Golf Club on July 18, 2025 in Portrush, Northern Ireland. (Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images)
Getty ImagesCam Smith +10000
The move to LIV has done Smith no favors. Much like almost all of the LIV guys, Smith has not been consistent in the majors. I’d really love to get these guys in an honest moment and ask them if they have second thoughts about their decision, only because their performances in the majors the last few years has been abysmal as a whole.
Smith looked like the heir apparent to the number one ranking in the world for years to come. He’s a past winner of this event. He should have other majors in his back pocket by now. The long odds show no belief in him. He’s too good to be in the position he’s in. If he can recreate his form from a few years ago there’s no reason why he can’t contend. A top ten showing (+1100) is a good play also.
ST GEORGE, UTAH - OCTOBER 25: Max Homa of the United States chips on the seventh green during the third round of the Bank of Utah Championship 2025 at Black Desert Resort on October 25, 2025 in St George, Utah. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)
Getty ImagesMax Homa +12500 to win
Similar to Tommy Fleetwood, Homa has shown up on leaderboards late in majors. Unlike Fleetwood, he hasn’t done it enough. Nothing about how he’s playing recently gives me warm feelings. It’s a major though and he finds his way onto my television on Sundays. I still believe that Homa will win a major in his career. His game fits the style of play needed here. His form is the big question. Majors bring out either the best or the worst in players. The play is all or nothing. He wins or he fades late and is out of the top ten. Homa is part of golf’s future. It’s time to take his trainee hat off and start winning big. Why not now?
PEBBLE BEACH, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 02: Jason Day of Australia plays a shot from a bunker on the second hole during the final round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2025 at Pebble Beach Golf Links on February 02, 2025 in Pebble Beach, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
Getty ImagesJason Day +17500 to win
He’s clearly not healthy. Hasn’t played great but hasn’t played terribly. Day may be past his prime. Sounds like the perfect longshot. I’ve said before his PGA Championship win was some of the finest golf I’ve ever seen. No one was going to beat him that week. No one. Injuries limited his success. He’s had a great career to be sure. He’s a classic what-could-have-been story. I root for him every time he tees it up. Give him a top ten play (+1100) as well. Day will remind us that he was great.
COLUMBUS, OHIO - JULY 05: Padraig Harrington of Ireland acknowledges the crowd after making birdie on the first green during the final round of the U.S. Senior Open Championship 2026 at Scioto Country Club on July 05, 2026 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
Getty ImagesPadraig Harrington +75000 to win
Years ago 59 year old Tom Watson made an historic run at a sixth Open Championship, losing to Stewart Cink in a playoff. Harrington just won the U.S. Senior Open championship. He’s won this tournament back to back (2007-2008). If any of the old guard that qualified this year has a chance to turn back the clock and make history, it’s Harrington. He is a terrific shot maker, thinks his way around a golf course and has had so much major championship success. His level of play at the moment is better than Watson’s was. Sometimes we need a little magic injected into our sports. Harrington can supply it. One last run for the old guard would cap off a less than spectacular golf season to be honest, not to mention the fact that a $20 play on Harrington returns $15,000. Just so you know.
Prediction: someone under the radar makes news this week. Cam Smith is the pick to come out of nowhere and contend for the Claret Jug. My heart and wallet are following Harrington.
This article was originally published on Forbes.com