Countdown to Kickoff: Hot Take Tuesday - Will Sarkisian go to NFL?

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As we continue making our way towards the season, the talk around Steve Sarkisian has continued to mount. With that, the talk around a “hot seat” has begun. In this week’s “Hot Take Tuesday” it’s about that distinction and why I think a promotion is more likely than a firing by seasons’ end. 

Steve Sarkisian to the NFL has consistently been a topic of conversation since he joined Texas. There have been rumblings in past offseasons, all that Sarkisian quickly shut down. However, I fully believe the interest is there from NFL franchises and the idea of an Arch Manning-Steve Sarkisian “package deal” has been thrown around. It’s all rumors and rumblings but they are consistently present and likely not going anywhere. 

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So the interest is real, at least from the NFL side. Now, for him to get hired at the next level, it requires a successful season. Texas can’t miss the CFP, have an inconsistent offense and Sarkisian got genuine interest from the NFL. So that leads us to the major question to be answered here: Is it more likely for Texas to make the CFP and excel on offense or fall short to a degree that’ll lead to a Sarkisian firing? I lean aggressively toward the former. 

Steve Sarkisian’s six years at Texas have been downright remarkable. It was far from perfect in 2025, but he’s rebuilt a program that was wandering in the wilderness for more than a decade. He’s taken Texas to two CFP semifinals, falling just short of a title appearance. In a down year, he still notched 10 wins after starting the season 3-2 with many picking 8-4 as the likely finish. That’s not saying last year was good enough, it’s saying Sarkisian was a major reason it wasn’t much worse. 

Heading into this season, the amount of pressure on his shoulders is remarkable. He has to deliver at a high rate to satisfy the Texas fanbase. That being said, I believe outside of a Penn State, Clemson level collapse, Sarkisian is not getting fired. Because of that, I see many more worlds where Sarkisian wins a title(or gets close) and is immediately getting NFL looks rather than the bottoming-out scenario.

I want to be clear. I fully expect Steve Sarkisian to be the head coach for Texas in 2027. Whether this season ends in a championship or missing the CFP, I believe this is far from Sarkisian’s last year in Austin. However, if a move is on the horizon for Sarkisian, I believe the NFL is more likely than the unemployment line.

This article originally appeared on Longhorns Wire: Countdown to Kickoff: Hot Take Tuesday - Will Sarkisian go to NFL?

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