SAWS says this could be the strongest El Niño in living memory
· The South African
The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has released an official statement confirming that a strong El Niño event has formed in the Pacific Ocean, and it’s on track to intensify significantly this spring.
According to SAWS, the latest sea surface temperature readings in the eastern central tropical Pacific are already exceeding the threshold used to define a very strong event.
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SAWS says current forecasts indicate the event will very likely exceed the 3°C anomaly threshold, a level the weather service links to becoming “the strongest event in living memory.”
what makes this El Niño different
SAWS classifies El Niño strength using sea surface temperature anomalies over a three-month average.
A strong event is one where that anomaly exceeds 1.5°C above climatology, while a very strong event sees the ocean run 2°C warmer than normal.
This year’s event is forecast to push past even that, crossing the 3°C mark.
Historically, most El Niño events bring below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures to southern Africa. S
AWS points to the 1982/83 and 2015/16 events as the two most damaging for the region, both linked to widespread drought. However, the weather service is careful to note that not every El Niño follows that pattern.
The very strong 1997/98 event, for example, was actually associated with slightly above-normal rainfall over parts of South Africa’s summer rainfall region.
what SAWS expects for this summer
For October to December 2026, SAWS’s seasonal forecast points to below-normal rainfall as the most likely outcome across most of South Africa, alongside above-normal temperatures.
Looking further ahead, the outlook for November 2026 to January 2027 follows a similar pattern, with drier and warmer conditions expected to dominate most of the country.
SAWS also flagged a longer-term consequence.
Combined with the effects of global warming, this El Niño could help make 2027 the warmest year ever recorded, echoing what happened after the 2015/16 event, which brought a run of unprecedented heatwaves to the region.
why SAWS is urging caution now
If the 2026/27 El Niño does bring severe drought conditions, SAWS warns that a high frequency of heatwaves is likely to accompany it, with the potential to become severe.
The weather service stressed that meaningful uncertainty still remains around the event’s eventual strength and regional impact, which is why it’s already briefing Disaster Management structures and weather-sensitive industries ahead of time.
SAWS is urging both the public and weather-sensitive industries to keep a close eye on its short-term daily forecasts as the picture develops, rather than relying only on this early seasonal outlook.
It’s rare to see SAWS use language this direct in an official statement, which says something about how seriously they’re treating this one. I’ll be keeping a close eye on the updates through spring, hey.
Are you already changing any plans based on this forecast?
Let us know in the comments below, Mzansi…