Northwestern football vs. South Dakota State 2026 predictions
· Yahoo Sports
The ‘Cats take on the Jackrabbits at 7:00 p.m. CT to kickoff their 2026 season.
Charlie Jacobs: (41-20 Northwestern)
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Blurb: South Dakota State is a top-tier FCS program. Northwestern should still win this game by at least two scores. Two years ago, when South Dakota State was arguably a better team than it is now, the Jackrabbits lost by 24 to an Oklahoma State team that finished the season 3-9 and winless in the Big 12. It does help the Jackrabbits that they played in Week 0, but this is a must-win for the Wildcats and would be disastrous if the outcome isn’t a win. Simply put, it would be a long season for Wildcat fans if this game is an L.
Donovan West: (31-24 Northwestern)
Blurb: Regardless of South Dakota State’s class or conference, the Jackrabbits pose a difficult test for a Northwestern team emerging from its summer slumber. South Dakota State hasn’t had a losing season in 15 years and is 50-9 over the past four seasons. After a 70-7 blowout win in Week 0, the Jackrabbits aren’t going to roll over against the ‘Cats. Northwestern will have to come out firing, and its offense will have to hit explosive plays while its defense limits South Dakota State’s lethal rushing attack. I think NU makes enough winning plays in the fourth quarter to sneak out a one-score victory, but it will be a frightening, back-and-forth season opener.
Pierson Strandquist: (31-20 Northwestern)
Blurb: Trap game yada yada yada. Not happening.
Regardless of South Dakota State’s FCS pedigree, you can’t lose to them as a Power Four program, and thus I think they won’t. If this truly is a “new era” of Northwestern football, prove it. 3-3 at halftime against Miami (OH) at home in 2024? Getting steamrolled by Tulane in 2025? Unacceptable.
While I’d hope they win by more than two scores, a W is the absolute bare minimum. I have this one playing out similarly to the 2017 Wildcats’ opener against Nevada, scoreline included. Northwestern scores first and maybe surprisingly trails the Jackrabbits at halftime, but the defense locks in from there on out. Superior offensive stats in a first look at Chip Kelly’s vision carry Northwestern to victory going into the bye.
Name: Whitley Williams (41-24 Northwestern)
Blurb: The beauty of college football is that anything can happen on a given Saturday.
The Northwestern Wildcats will need to play a clean, complete game to start their 2026 campaign on the right foot. The South Dakota State Jackrabbits had an impressive showing in their season opener against Stetson, dominating from start to finish in a 70-7 blowout fueled by explosive plays and a strong run game.
The Jackrabbits’ starting quarterback, Chase Mason, went 5-of-10 passes for 157 yards and one touchdown including a 73-yard strike to wide receiver Jack Smith. But the Jackrabbits made their mark on the ground, rushing for 393 yards and averaging 8.7 yards per carry. Running backs James Basinger and Corey Blair each cracked the 100-yard threshold. For Northwestern, the old adage, “stop the run, win the game”, will be put to the test.
The Cats’ boast a balanced attack that can expose the Jackrabbits’ vulnerable secondary. Wide receiver, Griffin Wilde, who totalled 880 yards and 8 touchdowns last season, is expected to be a pivotal player for the Wildcats. Meanwhile, the one-two punch of running backs Caleb Komlafe and Gavin Sawchuck should give Northwestern plenty of opportunities to control the clock and wear down the Jackrabbits’ defense. If experienced quarterback Aidan Chiles can set the tone early and look comfortable operating Chip Kelly’s offense, Northwestern should have enough star power to claim the victory.
I expect this FCS vs. FBS matchup to follow a familiar script, a competitive, back-and-forth battle in the first half with Northwestern asserting dominance in the second half.
Deolu Akingbade: (38-27 Northwestern)
Blurb: The biggest issue for the Wildcats will be taming an explosive Jackrabbits offense. Starting QB Chase Mason passed for 2,005 yards and 15 touchdowns against four interceptions in just eight appearances last year and likely will surpass that total this year. Although the Jackrabbits’ top receiver and rusher have both graduated, they have lots of talent to fill that gap.
Northwestern should be able to outgun Mason and the Jackrabbits with a revamped offense under offensive coordinator Chip Kelly and starting quarterback Aidan Chiles, but it won’t be an easy feat. Northwestern’s unproven defensive line will have to go against an experienced, consistent South Dakota offensive line and pressure Mason enough to throw him off his groove. Northwestern should be able to beat South Dakota State through big performances from skill players like Griffin Wilde and Caleb Komolafe, although Mason’s offensive production could give them trouble.
Drew Christmann: (31-24 Northwestern)
Blurb: While, like most early season FCS opponents, the Jackrabbits are getting $500,000 to come face off against Northwestern in Evanston, this is no typical FCS team.
In FCS terms, South Dakota State is undoubtedly a “blue blood”. Winners of back-to-back championships in 2022 and 2023 (going 15-0 in the latter season), 14 straight winning seasons, and has sent over a dozen players to the NFL that includes seven active players, the most in the FCS.
But the two most important matchups tilt in Northwestern’s favor heading into kickoff. For one, WR Griffin Wilde could be a player to watch for a big day, having some extra motivation behind him considering he started his collegiate career out in Brookings, while the Wildcat defense takes on QB Chase Mason who’s still finding his rhythm after having his previous season shaken up with a foot injury. One thing to watch on that side is how Northwestern’s rebuilt offensive line fairs against SDSU’s front seven. No need to dominate, but leaving just enough room for Aiden Chiles, Caleb Komolafe and the rest of the running back room to control the clock against a weaker Jackrabbit secondary.
Calvin Kaplan: (24-21 South Dakota State)
Blurb: David Braun has been a really solid coach in his three seasons with Northwestern, but some of his worst coaching performances have come during season openers. In 2023, Northwestern opened the season with a 24-7 loss at the hands of Rutgers, and it barely escaped Miami (OH) in 2024, winning 13-6. And of course, nobody can forget the disaster that was a 23-3 defeat at the hands of Tulane last season.
For whatever reason, Braun’s Wildcats have yet to turn in a good opening performance during his tenure, even during seasons when they’ve eventually bounced back to make bowl games. That’s what worries me against a South Dakota State team that just dropped 70 points in three quarters against Stetson. The Jackrabbits are an FCS team in name only, as they sport a number of viable running backs, a revamped defense and a competent QB in Chase Mason.
In the end, I view this game as a battle of the running backs, with the Jackrabbits taking advantage of a questionable Northwestern defensive line and doing just enough through the air to win. Northwestern absolutely has a good chance to get the victory, and I do see the ‘Cats going 2-1 in non-conference matchups overall, but this game has all the makings of a trap. Expect a hotly-contested thriller to start the season, with SDSU pouring some temporary cold water on the Wildcats’ new-era expectations.
Matt Campbell: (28-21 Northwestern)
Blurb: I don’t believe the SDSU hype just yet. Stetson hasn’t been a great FCS program since 2019.
Now I won’t discredit South Dakota State and treat them as “less than” in comparison to a Power Four like Northwestern. I think it beats a lot of programs in the Power Four, in contrast, and I believe this Saturday is a legitimate test for David Braun’s new regime in year four. But because of those expectations, I don’t think the ‘Cats will be playing any games with the Jackrabbits.
I expect NU to take control of this one on the ground with four strong running backs to bounce off. We saw last year that Preston Stone struggled mightily in the pocket in a new system, so I expect a pretty run-heavy playbook to alleviate some of that pressure off Aidan Chiles. If this game is decided on the ground, I think Kobe Mckinzie is the X-factor that gives Northwestern’s defense the advantage.
Adam Sutro: (24-13 Northwestern)
Blurb: Like Donovan said, this is a South Dakota State team with 50 wins in the past four years. The Jackrabbits are an opponent that can’t be overlooked.
However, there is still a talent gap between these two teams, and with the ‘Cats’ high-profile coaching staff, which know includes Chip Kelly and Jerry Neuheisel on the offensive side of the ball, NU should enter Saturday’s game ready to play.
I expect Northwestern to run the ball well and force a couple turnovers, winning by a couple scores to start off its 2026 campaign.