Week 1 overreactions: Is this Dolphins team really bad enough to go 0-17?

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Week 1 is the NFL’s annual invitation to abandon nuance. One bad afternoon becomes a lost season, one explosive offense becomes unstoppable and every surprise winner becomes a playoff threat. Sunday provided plenty of ammunition, from Chicago’s historic scoring eruption to Arizona’s road upset. Still, no result inspired more dread than Miami’s flat 27-13 loss in Las Vegas.

Miami is bad but not 0-17 bad

David Brytus-Imagn Images

The Dolphins looked like a team capable of losing to anyone. Miami fell behind 17-6 by halftime, never scored in the fourth quarter to the point where Malik Willis took full responsibility for the lack of offense due to taking numerous sacks. Also, allowed Kirk Cousins to settle immediately into the Raiders’ offense. Cousins completed his first 10 passes and threw three touchdowns, while Ashton Jeanty produced 147 yards from scrimmage and two scores.

Even worse, Miami’s familiar offensive speed did not translate into sustained pressure. The Dolphins scored only 13 points, and a late fumble forced by Jeremy Chinn eliminated any faint comeback chance. For a team starting over under Jeff Hafley, the procedural mistakes and lack of physicality were more concerning than the final margin.

Could Miami really finish 0-17? No. Going winless requires historic incompetence plus terrible luck, and the Dolphins still have enough playmakers to steal games. But the spirit of the overreaction is fair: Miami looks closer to the top of the 2027 draft than the AFC playoff race. The Dolphins may not be historically awful, but 4-13 feels far more plausible than anyone in South Florida wants to admit.

Chicago’s offense is real and unsustainable

The Bears’ 59-37 win over Carolina produced 96 combined points, the most ever in an NFL season opener. Caleb Williams threw for 269 yards and two touchdowns while adding 65 rushing yards and two more scores. That is evidence Chicago can create explosive plays through both structure and improvisation.

Declaring the Bears the NFC favorite, however, would ignore the other 37 points. Bryce Young threw for 361 yards, and Chicago’s defense generated too little disruption to offset its coverage and tackling problems. The offense should remain dangerous, but no unit sustains a 59-point pace. Reality sits somewhere between “contender” and “weekly shootout”: the Bears can score with almost anyone, yet may need to do exactly that.

Believe Baltimore; worry about Los Angeles

Lamar Jackson’s MVP buzz is justified. He completed 17 of 25 passes for 324 yards, rushed for another touchdown and powered Baltimore past Indianapolis 41-23. Derrick Henry added 144 rushing yards and three scores, giving the Ravens the league’s most intimidating backfield formula. One week cannot award an MVP, but Jackson already looks comfortable and explosive in Baltimore’s redesigned offense.

The Chargers deserve the opposite reaction. Arizona entered as a 9.5-point underdog, then controlled possession for more than 37 minutes, outgained Los Angeles 393-268 and won 26-14. Mike McDaniel’s offense managed only 14 points, while turnovers, penalties and a blocked punt made the operation look unprepared. That does not mean Justin Herbert and McDaniel cannot fit, but the learning curve could be costly in a loaded AFC.

Tennessee also earned genuine concern after producing 195 yards in a 23-10 loss to the Jets. Cam Ward passed for only 140 yards, and the Titans’ lone touchdown came late with the result effectively settled. Houston’s defense, by contrast, deserves patience after Josh Allen’s brilliance drove Buffalo to a 36-31 win. Some Week 1 failures reveal structural problems; others simply reveal that elite quarterbacks are difficult to stop.

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