What to expect from DJ Herz’s return to the Washington Nationals

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WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 02: DJ Herz #74 of the Washington Nationals reacts after pitching against the New York Mets during the sixth inning at Nationals Park on July 2, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Entering the 2025 season, the pitcher I was most excited about was DJ Herz. He was coming off a rookie season where he flashed immense upside and looked like a key cog in the Nats rotation. One of the first articles I wrote for this site was about how high DJ Herz’s ceiling was. 

However, things have not gone according to plan since then. After showing diminished stuff in Spring Training, it turned out that Herz needed Tommy John Surgery. He missed all of the 2025 season and was on the sidelines to start 2026. Following three rehab starts in June, Herz had to hit the shelf again due to a flexor strain. After building back up, Herz is back and will make his return to the big leagues tonight against the Tigers.

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This is a start that I am really looking forward to. Despite posting a 4.16 ERA in 88.2 innings as a rookie, his underlying numbers were much more promising. Herz posted a 3.71 FIP, a 3.85 xFIP and 3.30 xERA. The lefty was also a strikeout machine back in 2024.

Herz’s bread and butter is his fastball/changeup combination. As a prospect, he was known for his changeup but his fastball really stood out in the big leagues. It does not have crazy velocity, but the pitch generated a 30.5% whiff rate due to shape and deception. Against righties, Herz paired the heater with a nasty changeup. When he faces lefties, he relies more on his slider.

Command was a major question mark for Herz in the minors, but his 9.4% walk rate in the big leagues was much better than expected. There were starts where he battled command issues, but there were also nights where he was pinpoint. When Herz was locating, he tore through lineups. His 13 strikeout performance against the Marlins was insanely dominant.

After major surgery and a set-back, we will see if Herz has the same sort of crispness. Even if he does not, it would not be a reason to panic. The real test for Herz will come next year. This is just a good way to get his feet wet.

When Herz was on rehab, his stuff was not quite as loud as it was in 2024. In AAA, his fastball has been sitting around 92 instead of the 93-94 range we saw in the past. Early in his rehab assignment, he would be around 90-91 early in games before finding some extra velocity later in his outings.

However, he has been trending in the right direction. Herz averaged 92.7 MPH in his last rehab start where he threw 65 pitches. It looks like he is starting to find his best stuff. That is part of the reason he is getting this opportunity down the stretch.

Hopefully this outing can be a springboard for Herz as we enter 2027. I will also be intrigued to see how deep into the game he will go. As stated, he threw 65 pitches in his last rehab start. With that in mind, I would imagine he will go about 70-75 pitches. 

Regardless, it will be amazing to see the southpaw back on the mound. Ever since the Nats acquired him in the Jeimer Candelario trade, Herz has been a pitcher who has really intrigued me. Between his unique fastball, his nasty changeup and his deception, I have always thought there was something there.

Now we will get to see him back on a big league mound for the first time in two years. Just as it was for Josiah Gray, this was a culmination of a long process and an exciting day.

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