Indiana vs. Northwestern O/U: Picks & Analysis
· Yahoo Sports
From game totals and team scoring thresholds to individual player milestones, finding an edge on the board comes down to identifying value in the matchups and trends. It's not science, but it is fun.
Ahead of this matchup between the Indiana Hoosiers and the Northwestern Wildcats, we've pinpointed five over/under targets, spanning game totals, player props and some scoring lines — basically anything that looks ripe for the picking. Here is how the board shapes up and where the sharpest angles lie.
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1. Game Total: Over/Under 49.5 PointsThe Line: Over 49.5 (-110)/Under 49.5 (-110)
Indiana has scored 52, 55 and 38 points by themselves. The Hoosiers are coming off back to back shutouts, but I don't think they'll keep Northwestern completely off the board. The Wildcats scored 41 against Colorado, and while IU's defense is much better, Northwestern's offense isn't inept. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if Indiana scored around 40 points, leaving Northwestern to come up with just 10 of their own.
The Pick: OVER 49.5 points
2. Turbo Richard Rushing Yards: Over/Under 90.5The Line: Over 90.5 (-112)/Under 90.5 (-112)
Richard has been Indiana's bell-cow back for three weeks straight. Lee Beebe Jr. does get his share of touches, but Richard has been more effective and has found the end zone more often. For the last two weeks, Richard has averaged nearly 10 yards per carry and has found the end zone twice. He went over 100 yards in both of those games and nearly hit 150 last week against Western Kentucky. Northwestern is No. 93 against the run nationally, which should allow Richard to get loose on more than one occasion.
The Pick: OVER 90.5 yards
3. Indiana Total Points: Over/Under 34.5The Line: Over 34.5 (-113)/Under 34.5 (-113)
Indiana has scored 52, 55 and 38 points in its first three games this year. Yes, the 38 against Western Kentucky seems a little low, but the Hoosiers got off to a slow start and still almost hit 40 points. Northwestern is a better team than WKU, no doubt about it, but Indiana has been rolling all year and is still expected to beat up on the Wildcats. Expect Cignetti's bunch to start fast after emphasizing that all week in practice. It feels like Indiana should get to 40 with ease in this one.
The Pick: OVER 34.5 points
4. Josh Hoover Touchdown Passes: Over/Under 2.5The Line: Over 2.5 (+130)/Under 2.5 (-166)
I think there's real value here to take the over. Hoover threw four touchdowns passes in Weeks 1 and 2, and then tossed two more last week against Western Kentucky. Again, the Hoosiers got off to a slow start against WKU, and I don't see that happening against Northwestern. Hoover has a lot of weapons to throw to and will actually need to be aggressive in order to put Northwestern away. I see Hoover throwing at least three touchdown passes with four feeling pretty realistic.
The Pick: OVER 2.5 touchdown passes
5. 1st Quarter Spread: Indiana -5.5/Northwestern +5.5The Line: Indiana -5.5 (-112)/Northwestern +5.5 (-108)
As I've mentioned several times above, I expect Indiana to get off to a hot start in this one after being disappointed in their start against Western Kentucky. It seems very likely that the Hoosiers are up by at least a touchdown after the first quarter.
The Pick: INDIANA -5.5
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