Josh Pate Drops Bombshell Lincoln Riley-USC Prediction That Stuns Rich Eisen
· Yahoo Sports
The USC Trojans’ 41-27 loss to Oregon may have done more than damage their College Football Playoff hopes. College football analyst Josh Pate believes it could eventually be remembered as the game that started the end of Lincoln Riley’s tenure, a prediction that visibly surprised Rich Eisen.
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Appearing on The Rich Eisen Show, Pate argued that USC has already given Riley plenty of time and resources to make the program work. He pointed to multiple defensive coordinator changes, brand-new facilities, an elite recruiting class and a sold-out Coliseum as evidence that the Trojans had created the environment for a breakthrough.
GettyEUGENE, OREGON – SEPTEMBER 18: Head coach Dan Lanning of the Oregon Ducks looks on during the first half against the Portland State Vikings at Autzen Stadium on September 18, 2026 in Eugene, Oregon. (Photo by Soobum Im/Getty Images)Instead, Oregon lost starting quarterback Dante Moore in the second quarter and still pulled away for a double-digit victory.
“If you talk to USC people, they’ve waited,” Pate said. “They’ve had half a decade’s worth of patience.”
Pate’s point was not that Dylan Raiola is some ordinary backup quarterback. The former Nebraska starter arrived at Oregon with significant experience and showed why he was once one of the nation’s most coveted recruits, completing 19 of 25 passes for 289 yards and two touchdowns after replacing Moore.
Still, USC getting beaten decisively at home after Oregon was forced to turn to its backup only made the result more damaging in Pate’s eyes.
Josh Pate Issues Ominous Lincoln Riley Warning to USC Fans
Pate compared Riley’s situation to James Franklin’s final stretch at Penn State, arguing that certain losses can permanently change how a program views its coach even if the firing does not happen immediately. He believes Oregon may have been that kind of loss for Riley. Essentially putting a fork in the road for Riley’s time leading USC.
“He will not get that thing back,” Pate said. “That’ll be it for Lincoln Riley at USC.”
Eisen sounded stunned and asked whether Pate truly believed this could be the beginning of the end with so much football left. Pate did not back away.
“Yeah, because he’s not done losing,” Pate said. “They’re not done losing.”
That last warning may be the part USC fans should circle. The Trojans are still 4-1, so their season is hardly over, and Raiola’s starting experience matters when evaluating what happened after Moore’s injury. But Pate’s larger argument is about expectations.
GettyLOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 12: USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches the jumbotron during a game against the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on September 12, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Kevin Terrell/Getty Images)USC has spent years waiting for Riley’s breakthrough, and he believes losing this particular game could prove to be the moment that patience finally disappeared. Whether USC’s administration ultimately reaches the same conclusion remains to be seen, but Pate clearly believes the Oregon loss changed the conversation around Riley for good.
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