Week 8 NFL picks against the spread, predictions for every game: Chiefs look to bounce back vs. Broncos

· Yahoo Sports

For the Denver Broncos, Week 1 had to feel like a bad flashback.

The first 12 times that Patrick Mahomes started against the Broncos, the Kansas City Chiefs were 12-0. Then there was a shift with Sean Payton in charge, and the Broncos won two of three against Mahomes and the Chiefs. Then the season opener was like old times.

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It wasn't Mahomes that ruined the Broncos in the opener, though he played pretty well. It was Kenneth Walker III doing most of the damage as he ran through many missed tackles by the Broncos for 173 rushing yards. Also, the Chiefs' defense shut down Denver in a 31-10 win. It was a complete, impressive performance.

It doesn't seem like much has changed since then. The Chiefs started 5-0 before losing last week at Seattle, a very tough opponent. The Broncos are 5-2 but questions persist about their offense. Denver's defense has played much better since that weird off night at Kansas City, however.

While the defense on the whole has been better for the Broncos, the run defense isn't great. They're 26th in EPA (expected points added) per rush allowed. It's easy to say that the Seahawks showed everyone how to beat the Chiefs and that's to take Walker out of the game, but not everyone has Seattle's defense to pull that off. The Broncos showed once they aren't a great matchup against Walker. That's a big reason Kansas City -1.5 is the pick. We saw in the season opener that the Chiefs' dominance over the Broncos might not be over.

Kansas City Chiefs running back Kenneth Walker III had 173 rushing yards in Week 1 against the Broncos. (AP Photo/Colin E. Braley)AP Photo/Colin E. Braley

Here are the rest of the picks against the spread for Week 8 of the NFL season:

There's no way the Panthers are as bad as they played last week, when they were down 33-6 to the Buccaneers by halftime. Competent teams that get embarrassed usually bounce back well. The Packers are still a tough team to predict.

The early East Coast start has been death for the Raiders for a long time. But they are probably the better team. Certainly the better coached team. The Raiders are on a four-game losing streak but look at the opponents: Chiefs, Patriots, Bills, Rams. Those are four of the strongest teams in the NFL. If Las Vegas can't win here, it might be Fernando Mendoza time.

Cowboys (-6.5) over Cardinals

The Cowboys are going to score. The Cardinals have given up at least 30 points in six of their eight games. Dallas showed on Monday night that its offense is back. But what about Dallas' defense? Maybe a strong fourth quarter against the Eagles is a sign that the Cowboys' defense can be somewhat competent. It's scary to pick the Cowboys laying points to anyone because they'll need to get stops, but it would be a surprise if they don't score 30.

Buccaneers (-2.5) over Falcons

Good luck figuring out either of these teams. The Buccaneers could be better than we think. Their only significant weakness has been pass offense, and that is explained by having an undrafted rookie starting three of their seven games. We don't know if Baker Mayfield is fully healthy, considering he had just 11 pass attempts in his return from a dislocated right thumb last week, but if he is maybe the Bucs can get on a roll.

Teams coming back from an international game and playing right away without a bye are 0-3-1 this season. The losses were by 12, 11, and 6 points, and the close loss was by the Texans as a 10-point favorite last week. The tie was the Commanders when they were favored at home against the Giants. It's a hard turnaround, and it's what the Steelers face coming back from Paris last Sunday. Both of these teams are 5-2 but flawed, and I'll ride with the angle of the Browns not being the team that played in France last week.

Jaguars (-9.5) over Colts

It's hard to imagine being a Colts player this week. Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner were traded and everyone else with any value has to wonder if they're next. It's actually surprising the line is less than 10 points against a Jaguars team coming off a bye and a loss. This could get really ugly. The remainder of the Colts' season could get really ugly.

You've seen this here before: This all depends on if Lamar Jackson plays. This week, I assume he will. It seemed like he was close last week and he practiced in full on Wednesday. There would be some real frustration if he's not back for this game, which Baltimore might need to win to start to save its season. Their remaining schedule is the toughest in the NFL according to DVOA. If he does play, we know the Bills defense is not very good. Getting more than a field goal seems good.

If the Vikings' build was reversed, and they had a fun offense that was clearly one of the two best in the sport but a defense that was unreliable and among the 10 worst in the NFL, we'd respect them more. How do we know that? The 2026 Buffalo Bills, that's how. Minnesota's defense has been remarkable. Look at the Chicago Bears this season. In three of Caleb Williams' four starts, Chicago is averaging 39 points. In the other start, against the Vikings, the Bears scored three points at home (Williams got injured in that game but not until mid-fourth quarter). Maybe Detroit will figure out Brian Flores' defense, but nobody else has and I'm willing to take more than a field goal.

The Titans have been blown out only twice. They lost by 13 to the Jets in Week 1 and 23 to the Texans in Week 5. Every other game has been decided by six or fewer points. The Titans have won only one of those games, but they're keeping it close. It's possible Joe Burrow will add to his growing MVP argument and torch Tennessee in a blowout, but this seems like a good spot for an ugly underdog.

Rams (-6.5) over Chargers

Typically, an 0-6 team coming off a bye would be a fine choice. The Chargers don't want to get embarrassed all season. But they're simply not a good team in any phase. That is shocking but also irrefutable. This is the exact type of contrarian pick I'd like to make but I just can't get there with the Chargers.

Patriots (-7) over Dolphins

It's possible the Dolphins get some confidence from their first win. It's also possible they let down a bit: It's still a 1-5 team whose goal was to get that first win out of the way. On the other side, there's a Patriots team coming off a loss with three extra days of rest.

Commanders (-5.5) over Eagles

A low point of this week was looking at the schedule and realizing this was the Sunday night game. Not fun. Not sure what's more surprising: That a 1-4-1 Commanders team is a 5.5-point favorite over the Eagles, or that the Commanders are the pick. The Eagles' best remaining effort was going to come on a Monday night against the rival Cowboys, and that effort was pretty meager. It won't get better.

The Sunday night game might not be good, but Monday night makes up for it. This one is fun (and should have been the Week 1 opener, but that's an old gripe). If there's an offensive coach that can figure out the Seahawks' defense, it's Ben Johnson. Caleb Williams has been on a heater since returning from a hamstring injury. On the other side, Seattle's offense will be happy to see the Bears defense after a tough stretch of opposing defenses, and perhaps Jaxon Smith-Njigba goes nuts against a questionable Bears defense. It should be a good game, and if that holds it'll be nice to have the underdog.

Last week: 5-8-1

Season to date: 46-58-2

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