LILLEY: Carney’s Liberals have a real shot at all six byelections
· Toronto Sun
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Mark Carney called six byelections on Sunday and, come Dec. 7, he’s hoping that all six ridings turn out for the Liberals. Only two of the six seats now up for grabs were previously held by Carney’s party, but they clearly think they have a shot in all six.
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In Laurier—Sainte-Marie, formerly held by Steven Guilbeault, Carney has recruited Guy Cormier, the former president and CEO of Desjardins Group. Attracting the former CEO of Quebec’s largest financial institution is no small feat.
Cormier will win and likely end up in cabinet.
The other riding the Liberals previously held is Scarborough North, which was vacated earlier this year by Shaun Chen, citing health issues. Toronto’s suburbs have been very kind to the Liberals of late, and accountant James Li, who was just nominated last week, should easily keep the riding.
That leaves two ridings that were held by the Conservatives, one held by the NDP and one held by the Bloc that are now up for grabs.
So why are seats that should be safely Conservative, NDP or Bloc suddenly in play? Because Carney is polling like few prime ministers ever have.
The most recent Abacus Data poll puts the Liberals at 48% voter support nationally and the Conservatives at 32%. A full 59% of Canadians say they approve of the job the government is doing, and 56% approve of Carney’s performance.
Carney’s coattails are real
Alexandre Boulerice held Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie from 2011 until resigning earlier this year. Even as NDP fortunes faded in Quebec, he held on largely because of his personal popularity.
While the Liberals haven’t won in the riding since 1980, they have finished a strong second in the last three elections. Add to that the fact that Carney is the most popular politician in Quebec at the moment, and you see that the Liberals should win this seat.
Abacus has the Liberals at 47% voter support in Quebec, which is 19 points ahead of the Bloc Québécois and 28 points ahead of the Conservatives.
The riding of Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton stretches from Montreal’s South Shore down into the Eastern Townships and, other than a couple of elections where they turned to the NDP, it has been solid Bloc territory since 1993. The Liberals have been making inroads, though, again finishing second in the last few elections, and with the Carney bump are likely to take it.
Saskatchewan isn’t as solid as it used to be
That leaves the two ridings that the Conservatives have held. Surely there is no way that Brantford—Brant South or Yorkton—Melville would turn Liberal. These are Conservative strongholds.
Well, don’t be so sure.
Admittedly, Yorkton—Melville in southeast Saskatchewan is a long shot. Cathy Wagantall won the last election with 77% of the vote.
Still, the Liberals recruited current Yorkton Mayor Aaron Kienle, who won in 2024 with 62% of the vote. He’ll face Conservative candidate Nelson Pohl.
Pohl should win this riding, but things are changing in Saskatchewan. I feel it when I’m on the ground there. People regularly tell me they like Carney, something that never happened with Trudeau. So, between that and recruiting a popular mayor, Yorkton—Melville is in the Liberal’s sights.
Brantford is up for grabs
Finally, that leaves Brantford, a riding the Conservatives flipped blue in 2008 and have held ever since.
This would seem like a shoo-in, but in reality, this riding, like just about every Conservative-held riding in Ontario, is up for grabs. Abacus puts the Liberals in Ontario at 51% voter support, compared to just 33% for the Conservatives and a lowly 9% for the NDP.
That tells you that voters who formerly backed the NDP and the Conservatives have switched to the Liberals.
Add to this that Pierre Poilievre appointed former Brantford mayor Kevin Davis, who was not an overly popular mayor, over two other potential candidates and you have an issue
After winning handily in when he ran for mayor in 2018, Davis barely squeaked through in 2022 and chose not to run again. O’Donnell was a strong second to Larry Brock in 2025.
Adding to an already difficult situation is that Dave Carrol, one of those seeking the Conservative nomination for this byelection, has decided to run as an independent. Carrol not only has the endorsement of Phil McColeman, who held this riding for the Conservatives from 2008 until 2021, he’s already raised $35,000 for the campaign.
Dec. 7 could change everything
It’s difficult to see how the Conservatives keep this riding on Dec. 7 and, if they don’t, Poilievre is going to face serious questions about his leadership from his own MPs.
Byelections don’t matter until they do. On Dec. 7, Carney could grow his majority and Poilievre could find himself facing leadership questions.
It’s going to be an interesting five weeks.