Why the Broncos will hear the number 11 ad nauseam in 2026

June 13, 2026 · Yahoo Sports

Why the Broncos will hear the number 11 ad nauseam in 2026 originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

Despite nearly reaching Super Bowl LX last season after earning the No. 1 seed in the AFC, the Denver Broncos are seen by many as a team that will take a major step backwards in 2026.

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According to current odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, the Broncos are at +2000 to win Super Bowl LXI. There are 12 teams, including two in their own division (Kansas City and Los Angeles), listed ahead of them. Last season, there was a constant feeling of disrespect, prompting Bo Nix to go viral by calling his team the "overdogs". However, it doesn't look like the team has earned much more respect coming into this season.

One of the main reasons critics point to a drop off for the Broncos in 2026 is the amount of one-score games the team won last season... 11 to be exact. That matched the most in NFL history, set by the Minnesota Vikings in 2022 and tied by the Kansas City Chiefs in 2024.

Matt Okada of NFL.com discussed a defining number for each team for the upcoming season and that number, 11, was assigned to the Broncos.

"Last season, the Broncos won 11 one-score games, most in the NFL. But leading the league in that stat is historically inauspicious, as it tends to result in regression toward the mean the ensuing year. For example, Kansas City won 11 contests decided by one score in 2024 to just one in 2025. With an elite defense and an improved offense, including trade acquisition Jaylen Waddle, Denver is positioned to compete in the AFC again. That is if they can keep winning tight games in 2026", wrote Okada.

It's a fair question to wonder if the Broncos can keep up that pace, but many critics will call the Broncos lucky in 2025 before they call them good. With a more difficult schedule in front of them in 2026, Nix coming off a broken ankle and the idea that the division will only be tougher, it's easy to come to this conclusion.

For the record, the Vikings and Chiefs each missed the playoffs the following year after winning those close games.

TeamOne-score winsRecordFinal ResultRecord the following season2022 Minnesota Vikings1113-4Lost Wild Card Game7-102024 Kansas City Chiefs1115-2Lost Super Bowl6-112025 Denver Broncos1114-3Lost AFC Championship?

That is a noticeable trend and one that can't be ignored. However, an argument can also be made that a growing team has to get used to winning, and the experience of those close wins only made the team better.

When Sean Payton took over in 2023, the Broncos had missed the playoffs seven seasons in a row. Though the Broncos missed the postseason that year, they were in the race until the end of the season. The following year, they clinched a Wild Card. That led to a 14-win season the next year.

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Payton plans to only go up. He has coached a total of 18 seasons in the NFL and his teams have qualified for the playoffs in 11 of those. That's far from perfect, but it's also pretty dang good. Critics will continue to have this question all season, and it will flare up if the Broncos lose a one-score game, but Payton seems highly confident in the group he has.

Why the Broncos will hear the number 11 ad nauseam in 2026

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