Bucs vs. Cowboys 'Thursday Night Football' betting odds, picks and predictions: Best bets, player props
· Yahoo Sports
Things should heat up Thursday night when the Dallas Cowboys host the winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a prime-time showdown at AT&T Stadium.
This intriguing clash features franchises going in completely opposite directions, with the Cowboys (2-2) coming off an impressive 34-30 road victory against the Houston Texans. Dallas scored 28 second-half points to move to .500 on the season, denying Houston its first win.
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As for Tampa Bay, things couldn’t be going much worse. The Buccaneers suffered a 17-14 defeat on Sunday to the Green Packers. It marked their fourth consecutive defeat, although they have lost their games by a combined 20 points.
Now, undrafted rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels will make his second start of the season on a short week against an opponent trending upward.
Let’s take a deeper look at this intriguing matchup and see where we’ve located some betting value.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (-8.5, 47.5)
Tampa Bay’s biggest issue entering this matchup is obviously at QB.
Baker Mayfield (dislocated right thumb) was ruled out again, and reportedly won’t be ready until Week 7. And by that time, the Buccaneers could be essentially out of the playoff picture. That means Daniels is back under center four days removed from a game against the Packers in which he orchestrated just two scoring drives.
In contrast, the Cowboys could easily be 3-1 had they not given up that shocking walk-off field goal against the Baltimore Ravens two weeks ago at the Maracanã in Rio de Janeiro. However, Dallas rebounded in style on the road last weekend against its intrastate foe.
Dak Prescott completed 32-of-45 passing attempts for 335 yards and a touchdown in the win against Houston. And wide receiver CeeDee Lamb went off for a whopping 17 receptions for 189 yards and a score. Running back Javonte Williams had three touchdowns for an offense that ranks second in total points (122) and seventh in passing yards (1,032) this season.
On paper, Dallas should coast facing a depleted Tampa Bay defense and an offense in complete disarray. However, the Cowboys’ defense ranks last in yards allowed per play (6.4); 31st in rushing yards allowed (601); and in the bottom 10 in passing defense. Suffice it to say, those are not good numbers in any capacity.
Bet Dallas Cowboys to cover the spread at sportsbooks
I think both the spread and total are tricky, so I went looking for some value on a Same Game Parlay using alternate numbers. With that in mind, I’m hooking up Dallas giving 6.5 points with the total clearing 46.5 points to get us a nice price.
Bet: Same Game Parlay: Cowboys -6.5 and over 46.5 (+166, Caesars)
TAMPA, FLORIDA - OCTOBER 4: Kenny Gainwell #1 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers celebrates a touchdown on a pass from Jalon Daniels #10 against the Green Bay Packers during the game at Raymond James Stadium on October 4, 2026 in Tampa, Florida.Mike Carlson via Getty ImagesPlayer props
RB Kenny Gainwell: Same Game Parlay: 2+ receptions and 15+ receiving yards (+136, FanDuel) and 3+ receptions (+178, FanDuel)
Back in March, Tampa Bay made a minor splash when it added the free agent to its offense when it signed the former Pittsburgh running back to a two-year, $14 million deal.
Well, we’re entering Week 5 of the season and the winless Buccaneers have to be disappointed with his production thus far. Gainwell has just 26 yards rushing and 44 yards receiving, with the latter number being the biggest concern.
Last season, Gainwell racked up 77 catches for 512 yards in 18 games in Pittsburgh. That puts him well off pace to coming anywhere close to those numbers with Tampa Bay.
However, something everyone should have on their radar is the fact Tampa Bay management could be shopping Gainwell to various Super Bowl contenders. We are just a month away from the Nov. 10 trade deadline, meaning the winless Buccaneers might showcase him a whole lot more in the coming weeks if they opt to make a move.
Pundits across the country think he could be a solid fit with defending champion Seattle or perhaps Philadelphia, which is in a world of hurt in the backfield at this moment.
So, I’m targeting a Same Game Parlay that pairs Gainwell making at least two catches and hitting 15 yards. I think we see him getting a similar number of snaps (27) — or potentially more — that he garnered in the loss to the Packers.
I will also sprinkle a little on Gainwell hitting three receptions. Getting both of these wagers at plus money just sweetens them even more.
TE Cade Otton over 3.5 receptions (+108, FanDuel)
Through four games, Otton has been targeted 23 times, including six occasions in each of the Buccaneers’ last three outings. The fifth-year man out of the University of Washington turned those targets into 12 catches for 131 yards, so he has been active in the team’s offense.
Fast forward to this game and I firmly believe he will be one of the first options on Daniels’ radar. Tight ends tend to be prime targets aka safety valves for unseasoned rookie quarterbacks, which is the exact scenario Daniels is in.
Expect Otton to surpass this total in a game where Tampa Bay will likely be forced to throw the ball most of the night against a far superior opponent in Dallas.
Anytime TD scorers
TE Jake Ferguson (+230) and 2+ TDs (20-1) at FanDuel
To say the Tampa Bay defense has had issues covering tight ends this season would be an understatement. Take a look:
Mike Gesicki: Five catches for 78 yards and a touchdown
Harold Fannin Jr. and Blake Whiteheart (combined): 6/71/1 (catches/yards/TDs)
Tucker Kraft/Mark Redman/Jonnu Smith (combined): 9/90/1
The Buccaneers couldn’t contain the likes of Gesicki and others, so why would that trend stop here? And the loss of All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr., who is expected to miss up to four weeks with a fractured rib, means things should open up in the middle of the field for Ferguson.
Bet on Jake Ferguson anytime TD at sportsbooks right now
Throw in the fact the Tampa Bay defense must focus on the duo of Lamb and George Pickens and I think we could see a big game from Ferguson in the red zone.
Back Ferguson to hit paydirt for the fourth time this season and potentially deliver a huge score with two touchdowns in this contest.
WR Chris Godwin (+500, FanDuel)
Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson stressed to the media this week that Tampa Bay must get Godwin involved in the offense if it’s going to right the ship this season.
Godwin has yet to find the end zone in four games, but was Daniels’ favorite option in last week’s defeat. He recorded six catches on seven targets for 31 yards, giving me optimism that he will continue to see that volume against Dallas.
At this price, I don’t know how I can pass it up knowing the Buccaneers and Cowboys are likely going to be in a high-scoring prime-time tilt in the Lone Star State.